Put Your Money Under Swiss Guard

Putting money in Switzerland is like putting your money in a bomb shelter.

As a neutral country that never takes sides in geopolitical disputes, Switzerland attracts capital from other countries to its franc in times of crisis, and this can benefit its bonds and stocks as well. After the Sept. 11 attacks, the dollar fell 10% against the Swiss franc. The franc had a longer rally of 14.5% against the dollar in 1998 in the face of the Long-Term Capital Management blowup and the Russian debt default.

There are mutual funds built around this idea, including the five-star Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX), which over the years has garnered a lot of attention for owning Swiss government bonds and gold in several different forms.

One aspect of neutrality, and perhaps maturity, is that the economy is very steady: It's characterized by slow growth (annual growth has ranged between -1% and 2.5% for the last five years), low unemployment (close to 4% for several years), and low inflation (CPI growth has not exceeded 2% in more than 10 years).

As you might expect with such a slow-growth, mild-cycle type of economy, interest rates are very low, which, in part, reflects how little fear and volatility are priced into the market.

Flat Line Befitting its stable economy, Swiss interest rates are low

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Source: Swiss Central Bank

You might think that this would mean weak stock performance, but that hasn't been the case in dollar terms. In the last five years, the S&P 500 has ended up in the same place as the Swiss Market Index, but the iShares MSCI Switzerland Index Fund (EWL Quote) has outperformed dramatically because of the dollar's weakness against the Swiss franc.

Outperformance The Swiss Market Index (black line) has matched the S&P 500 over the past five years and the iShares Switzerland has beaten it handily

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Source: BigCharts.com

There is another interesting and useful aspect to the Swiss franc. Older investors may remember the "Ted spread," which assessed anxiety by comparing the implied interest rate spread between U.S. Treasury bills and eurodollar futures. The Ted spread has become less important recently because of the euro.

In the past few years, many forex traders have used the Australian dollar and the Swiss franc in a similar manner as the Ted spread. The idea is that the Aussie does well when there is less apprehension and the Swiss franc does well when there is more apprehension or uncertainty.

The last month provides an excellent example of this effect.

Index of Anxiety The Aussie dollar fell this month against the Swiss franc on worries over the Iranian nuclear program

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Source: FXstreet.com

As news broke of Iran's latest move regarding its nuclear ambitions, the Aussie fell swiftly; now that the shock has worn off, the selloff has partially unwound. The pair may have also priced in the conflict in Nigeria as well.

Does this matter? Well, the Aussie turned higher before the U.S. stock market started to recover from last Friday's decline. I believe that certain parts of the bond and forex markets can sometimes be short-term indicators for equities.