At this point, click fraud appears to be a tiny, tiny fraction of ad hits, probably less than a couple percent of all clicks.
But even if the problem were to escalate to a higher fraction of all clicks, Google would simply factor that higher rate into its models and work with the customers to maintain a high ROI.
Where the issue could become problematic would be if it becomes such a large fraction of clicks that the ad network ROI becomes unattractive to Google's customers.
Is that the case right now? Before answering, I'd suggest a look at the remarkable growth that Google is enjoying.This company is one of the fastest growing companies in the history of the planet, and companies simply don't grow like this if they're selling a bad product. Google's customers are obviously generating high ROI from Google's ad network or they'd stop using it. The click-fraud issue exists, to be sure, but Google and its customers are plenty aware of it and already factor it in. Let's move on, shall we? Click
Technician's Take: Google Is Tracking Toward Trouble by Dan FitzpatrickThis is an excerpt from a column originally published on RealMoney on Jan. 23.
If Google is going to remain in this uptrend, the selloff needs to be contained by the support line above. My note says "potential" trend line because it takes at least three distinct points to form a valid trend line. So far, there are only two. So if the bears take it below this line, my bet is that $300 is in play. The next catalyst for Google will be on Jan. 31, when Google announces earnings. "Sell on the rumor, buy on the news, anyone?"