Take Google. I still believe Google can earn $10 and trade at 60 times earnings. But that's a destination, and there is no interstate highway in this business, just winding roads that don't get there as fast as we like and whining kids in the back seat who make us stop and get out, and irritate us.
But if you had unloaded some Google when it was flying, just think of what you could do now. You could buy a little back -- not all of it, just a little. And then you could hope that the market goes down more. If it didn't, you'd be OK because you bought some here. If it did, you could buy even more.
It doesn't work like that, though, if you never take profits, or if you believe that selling is going to leave you naked.
Fundamental Concerns: Google's Momentum Could Wane by Frank CurzioThis column was originally published on RealMoney on Jan. 19. There is no doubt that Google is the darling of Wall Street. The Jan. 18 downgrade by some small shop only serves as the exception to the increasingly popular analyst game of "top my price target." But what's being overlooked in this game is that the stock's further rise isn't dependent on Google's business. It's dependent on momentum. Since its IPO at $85 a share in 2004, Google shares have soared about 425% to $450 a share. I admit I was on the sidelines the whole time during the move, but enjoyed watching the action, as well as the analysts race their targets ever higher. But shares are not moving higher on valuation here; they are moving higher on momentum. Momentum consists of two important conditions:
- Positive sentiment
- Favorable market conditions