Embattled Tech Looks to Strong Companies

This afternoon we will see if Apple(AAPL Quote) trees grow to the sky, plus get reports from highfliers eBay(EBAY Quote) and Advanced Micro Devices(AMD Quote). Thursday will bring news from Motorola(MOT Quote) -- and an indication whether these techs can stabilize a rocked sector.

While the negative reaction to earnings reports from Intel(INTC Quote) and Yahoo!(YHOO Quote) currently has the Nasdaq reeling, this afternoon's releases will come from tech stocks that have stronger chart patterns and high expectations, particularly Apple.

At the MacWorld Expo last week, Apple CEO Steve Jobs announced that 14 million iPods were sold in the fourth quarter, and that new iMacs with Intel chips soon will be available. The news boosted Apple shares, which soared to an intraday high of $86.40 on Jan. 12 as Wall Street analysts flooded the newswires with upgrades and higher price targets. Jobs also indicated that the company would report revenue of $5.7 billion, higher than the Wall Street estimate of $5.04 billion. Apple sold 32 million iPods in 2005, and now owns 83% of the portable music market. New products expected in 2006 include Apple phones and flat-panel televisions; we will see if mention of these and any other new good news in the conference call on this afternoon's report is sufficient to stabilize the tech sector.

Apple is expected to report EPS of 62 cents. According to Thomson/First Call, 16 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $79, with a high target at $100, so additional upgrades appear possible. ValuEngine rates Apple a hold, and according to my model, the stock is 30.9% overvalued with fair value at $64.58.

But Bear Stearns projects that Apple will earn $2.53 in 2006, and when I enter that figure in my model, fair value moves up to $69.57. That leaves the stock still more than 20% overvalued. The weekly chart profile is overbought, with the five-week modified moving average at $73.05 and the 52-week high set last week at $86.40.