Why You Should Be Bullish on the Dow

American Express Could gain 8-9 points

American Express(AXP): With $3 in earnings power and easy comparisons because of gasoline, Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita, this stock should motor to $60 rather early in the year. Underneath the steady businesses is turmoil, though, as the company tries to deal with the dismantling of that Advisers business and as it searches for new growth. I still believe that there could be a takeover here, and that Citigroup(C) wants the property. But on earnings alone, I see the thing up 8-9 points. Travel can't be as bad as it was in 2005, it just can't be.

AIG With fires out, it burns higher

AIG(AIG): Martin Sullivan turns out to be good, and as much as I believe that Hank Greenberg was a charitable guy, the stuff that went on in his name is just downright creepy. He obviously overstayed his welcome, and continues to do so. Oh, and by the way, doesn't it seem that all the miscreants have decided to come on television and trash New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, even as they, not Spitzer, were evil-doers? (In the interest of full disclosure, Spitzer was an investor at Cramer Berkowitz, the hedge fund I founded.) With rates up dramatically, and honest accounting now in store for AIG, I believe estimates are way too low and this company could earn $6. Give it a 15 multiple and you have a $90 stock. You know something? I may just buy this stock in a couple of weeks because rates are up gigantically and this business, year over year, could be en fuego. Good riddance, Hank!

AT&T Might as well be a bond

AT&T(T): Nope, doesn't have it. One of the things I pride myself on is how darned right I have been about how bad these telcos are. AT&T will stretch to make its $1.80; it will do it all the wrong ways; it will be unimpressive; and it will be given no due this year, just as in 2005. This stock might as well be a bond. If I were this company's management, I would slash the dividend and build out the infrastructure to make it so you can wirelessly send video into homes. But they won't do that. There's nothing here, I am afraid, and I see only $25 next year, too.

Boeing Second-favorite of the bunch

Boeing(BA): Numbers are way too low here, the $3.30 estimate will be blown away, and I believe that $3.60 could be more like it, or maybe even $4 if the orders come through. I will pay easily $90 for that, because this company is the single-biggest beneficiary of the need to have low fuel costs for airlines. The renaissance of the airline business worldwide and the domestic strength in the group make the stock my second-favorite for the year after Altria. People, please understand that aerospace is in a multiyear cycle and you can't let your mind be constrained by how high the current multiple is.

Editor's note: Be sure to read Part 2 and Part 3 and Part 4.

I guess I am bullish.

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