Google: Both Sides Now

Google issued 14 million shares in that offering, and insiders have sold more than 20 million shares since the company went public. So, while demand has been sated by big investors, there are more shares around than ever. If Google doesn't buy back its stock -- and it's shown few signs it's willing to play such games to benefit investors -- the liquidity scales could tip in favor of excessive supply.

At the same time, it's starting to become a given that Google's stock will just keep going up. Google's financials have spiraled upward and surprised so often that investors are becoming conditioned to expect a blowout every quarter. One of these quarters, they'll be let down. That, coupled with Google's infamous secrecy, will really make the stock volatile.

Bottom Line: A Bumpy Road That Eventually Leads Higher

There's not a competitor who can steal the thunder from Google, although there is Yahoo!, which has shown a knack for nipping at its heels. Google may need to find new revenue, but it has a few years to do it. Within search, all signs indicate it won't blow its opportunities, but expand them. So, the stock is likely to power higher.

The difference is that it's going to be a more turbulent ride. It's not going to be as easy to double your money in Google in 2006 as it was in 2005 and 2004. It can happen, but you'll need to choose the right strategy and stick to it through thick and thin.