Surprises for 2006

01/03/06 - 10:47 AM EST

, TWX , GS (Cramer's Pick) , ANF , GOOG , MSFT , GM , TIVO , C , DJ , BRKA , AAPL , YHOO , AMZN , EBAY , VZ , KO , WSM , URBN
Doug Kass

14. Apple (AAPL Quote - Cramer on AAPL - Stock Picks) (and its iTunes) will not be immune from the problems facing Google as the music industry decides on new ways to control its distribution, just like in the good old days. In other Internet happenings: TiVo (TIVO Quote - Cramer on TIVO - Stock Picks) and NetFlix (NFLX Quote - Cramer on NFLX - Stock Picks) will merge and the China Internet Bubble will deflate.

15. Amid the market's gloom and doom, Warren Buffett goes on a buying spree (which emphasizes acquisitions in old media and the real estate industry). Berkshire Hathaway ( BRKa Quote - Cramer on BRKa - Stock Picks) acquires Dow Jones & Company (DJ Quote - Cramer on DJ - Stock Picks) after a proxy contest is instituted by some of the younger members of the Bancroft family. Buffett expands his involvement in the real estate sector after buying Countrywide Credit and a troubled, publicly held, substandard mortgage originator.

16. The bitter differences between New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer and Ken Langone get more heated and Langone announces his candidacy for the Republican nomination for governor in opposition to Democrat Spitzer. With corporate contributions to his candidacy breaking all-time records and the backing of Hank Greenberg and former Goldman Sachs Chief John Whitehead, Langone narrowly defeats Spitzer in the general election. Langone resigns shortly into his governorship, saying he has made his point, and he directs Nassau County Executive Thomas Suozzi to replace him.

17. Carl Icahn means business this time with Time Warner (TWX Quote - Cramer on TWX - Stock Picks). Enlisting Steve Case to run the company and Calpers (and two other large financial institutions provide the rest of the financing), he initiates a partial tender for a quarter of the company at $22 a share during the second quarter.

Like the legendary cult movie Putney Swope, he swiftly gains control of the company's board of directors by the end of the third quarter. Toward year-end, Steve Case -- in concert with Microsoft and Berkshire Hathaway -- pays $18 billion for the AOL division of Time Warner.

18. Citigroup (C Quote - Cramer on C - Stock Picks) begins to undo some of the acquisitions that occurred during the Weil regime. Smith Barney is spun off to shareholders.

19. Vice President Condoleeza Rice (see Surprise No. 2), seen as a force of honesty and integrity, emerges as the leading contender for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008. Sen. Hillary Clinton decides to bow out as a candidate. She and the other Democratic presidential hopefuls uncharacteristically throw their early support behind Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana.

20. There are no further meaningful natural disasters.

21. Osama Bin Laden is found dead.

22. The hedge fund industry suffers outflows -- in marked departure from the last decade -- as the industry (similar to in the mid-1970s) fails to insulate investors from the bear market of 2006.

23. A large corruption scandal in Russia hits the emerging markets late in the year.

24. Japan's Nikkei -- oblivious to the chaos in other world markets -- continues to climb and briefly reaches the 20,000 level.

25. Economic growth continues apace in China and India, but a furious debate regarding the off-shoring of IT and service jobs continues, sparking a round of legislative protectionist initiatives. As a result, trade tensions mount among the U.S., India and China.

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At time of publication, Kass and/or his funds were long TWX and GOOG puts, and short ANF and GS, although holdings can change at any time.

Doug Kass is general partner for two investment partnerships, Seabreeze Partners L.P. and Seabreeze Partners Short L.P. Until 1996, he was senior portfolio manager at Omega Advisors, a $4 billion investment partnership. Before that he was executive senior vice president and director of institutional equities of First Albany Corporation and JW Charles/CSG. He also was a General Partner of Glickenhaus & Co., and held various positions with Putnam Management and Kidder, Peabody. Kass received his bachelor's from Alfred University, and received a master's of business administration in finance from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School in 1972. He co-authored "Citibank: The Ralph Nader Report" with Nader and the Center for the Study of Responsive Law and currently serves as a guest host on CNBC's "Squawk Box." Kass appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.

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