Six (Mostly) Safe Tech Bets for 2006

Don't call them predictions. Unlike pundits who boldly make claims they then spend the next 12 months rationalizing away, I like to think of them safe bets -- well, pretty safe anyway -- based on observations that haven't yet been fully absorbed into the market thinking.

Watch for a leader in online video to emerge.

Google and Yahoo! beefed up their video search in 2005, broadening the offerings found on older online video sites like iFilm and AtomFilms. But the biggest star in online video -- and most likely one of the most sought-after acquisitions of 2006 -- appears to be YouTube.

Founded last February, YouTube has achieved what Google can only dream of -- a social-networking site that lets people upload homemade videos or compile favorites to show friends. More impressively, it's turning into the MySpace of videos, surpassing Google Video and closing in fast on Yahoo! for the market lead.

There will be more people touting podcasting than listening to podcasts.

Venture capital firms and others who like to perch on the cutting edge of tech trends say podcasting is the next big thing. It's not.

Instead, keep an eye on consumers' appetites for downloadable video from big media. Apple is most likely going to be the company that compels consumers into paying for downloaded audio and video programming, just as it did with songs. If TiVo and Netflix are smart, they will follow suit -- perhaps merging with a bigger partner, if not each other.

Bloggers may be stealing readers away from newspapers, but when it comes to audio and video feeds, people will go for high production values. Which would you rather spend time uploading to your iPod: An episode of Lost or a grainy feed of someone prattling about their favorite celeb?