Big Blue's Back in the Black

From a technical point of view, IBM shares -- now trading at around $89 -- broke out of a yearlong downtrend at the start of November and now look set to challenge the $98-$99 level that proved to be a top in 2004 and early 2005. If shares bust through that level over the next six months to a year, the next milestones would be the $115 level last seen in 2002 and $124 touched in late 2001. The stock's all-time high came way back in 1999 at $136, after tripling from 1998 levels on the strength of Y2k and Internet spending.

The only major technical concern is that volume has been a touch lighter than bulls would consider ideal. Still, barring unforeseen problems, IBM shares look like a lock to at least $95 and probably $97.50, which would be a 10% gain from here. In other words, solid black from out of the blue.

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