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REITs: An Overvalued Asset Class

Public Storage (PSA - Get Report) owns and operates self-storage facilities in the U.S. Shares are 42.7% overvalued with fair value at $49.14. The weekly chart profile is positive with the five-week MMA at $66.37 and the 52-week high at $70.60, set last Friday. My semiannual value levels are $61.09 and $58.96 with quarterly pivots at $70.53 and $71.34, and monthly risky levels at $72.17 and $72.70. Shares were recently trading at $70.04.

Shurgard Storage Centers (SHU) develops and operates self storage centers for personal and business use in the U.S. and Europe. Shares are 57.4% overvalued with fair value at $36.86. The weekly chart profile is positive with the five-week MMA at $55.12 and the 52-week high at $59.30, set last Thursday. My semiannual value levels are $48.31 and $44.77 with quarterly pivots at $50.45 and $52.80, and a risky level at $58.80. Shares were recently trading at $57.88.

Simon Property Group (SPG - Get Report) owns and operates regional malls and community shopping centers. Shares are 54.7% overvalued with fair value at $49.90. The weekly chart profile is positive with the five-week MMA at $72.43 and the 52-week high at $80.97, set on Aug. 3. My semiannual value levels are $69.29 and $65.81 with a quarterly pivot at $77.70 and quarterly/monthly risky levels at $79.93 and $81.00. Shares were recently trading at $76.99.

Taubman Centers (TCO - Get Report) owns and manages regional retail shopping centers in the U.S. Shares are 62.3% overvalued with fair value at $21.29. The weekly chart profile is positive with the five-week MMA at $32.50 and the 52-week high at $36.34, set on July 11. My semiannual value levels are $32.02 and $30.62 with quarterly/monthly risky levels at $35.88 and $36.35. Shares were recently trading at $34.76.

Vantas (VTR - Get Report) owns and leases health-care related and senior housing facilities in the U.S. Shares are 64.6% overvalued with fair value at $19.26. The weekly chart profile is positive with the five-week MMA at $30.74 and the 52-week high at $32.70, set on Oct. 10. My semiannual value levels are $30.98 and $29.94 with quarterly risky levels at $36.10 and $37.48. Shares were recently trading at $31.99.

Richard Suttmeier is president of Global Market Consultants, Ltd., chief market strategist for Joseph Stevens & Co., a full service brokerage firm located in Lower Manhattan, and the author of TheStreet.com Technology Report newsletter. At the time of publication, he had no positions in any of the securities mentioned in this column, but holdings can change at any time. Early in his career, Suttmeier became the first U.S. Treasury Bond Trader at Bache. He later began the government bond division at L. F. Rothschild. Suttmeier went on to form Global Market Consultants as an independent third-party research provider, producing reports covering the technicals of the U.S. capital markets. He also has been U.S. Treasury Strategist for Smith Barney and chief financial strategist for William R. Hough. Suttmeier holds a bachelor's degree from the Georgia Institute of Technology and a master's degree from Polytechnic University. Under no circumstances does the information in this commentary represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send your feedback -- click here to send him an email.
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TCO $74.15 -1.40%

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