New Semi Picks in the Tech Five & Dime
The Winners and Losers
These stocks have moved up or down by at least 20% since being put on the shelves:
No Longer in StockI've taken these companies off the store shelves: Ditech Communications (DITC), Sonus Networks (SONS) and Tut Systems (TUTS). I wouldn't add to positions on these names; sell them on strength. Intellisync (SYNC), one of our biggest winners, will also leave the store. After the close on Wednesday, Nokia (NOK) announced that to compete with Research In Motion's BlackBerry, it's paying $430 million to buy Intellisync. Intellisync provides wireless email and data services, including software that synchronized Palm handheld devices with computers.
|The Tech Stock Five & Dime
|Company Name||Date Posted||Price At Close||Price On 11/15/2005||% Gain /Loss||Under Valued||12x3 Stoch||Value Level||Pivot||Risky Level|
|Gateway (GTW:NYSE)||9/21/2005||$2.60||$3.04||16.92%||70.6%||RM||2.80 Q||5.47 Q|
|Immersion (IMMR:Nasdaq)||10/14/2005||$7.12||$6.24||-12.36%||67.7%||OB||5.16 M||6.32 Q||10.44 Q|
|SunMicro (SUNW:Nasdaq)||9/21/2005||$3.94||$3.68||-6.60%||3.4%||DM||3.51 M||3.66 Q||5.14 Q|
|Semiconductors & Electronics|
|SkyWorks (SWKS:Nasdaq)||9/21/2005||$6.84||$4.84||-29.24%||68.8%||OS||5.70 M||7.74 Q|
|Software & Services|
|Actuate Corp (ACTU:Nasdaq)||8/22/2005||$2.38||$3.53||48.32%||52.5%||OB||2.14 Q||3.17 Q|
|BEA Systems (BEAS:Nasdaq)||9/23/2005||$8.43||$9.25||9.73%||42.6%||RM||8.40 Q|
|Entrust (ENTU:Nasdaq)||9/21/2005||$5.51||$4.47||-18.87%||42.3%||DM||3.76 Q||5.68 Q|
|Extreme Networks (EXTR:Nasdaq)||10/14/2005||$4.38||$4.85||10.73%||74.4%||RM||3.20 M||4.75 S||6.21 Q|
|Interwoven (IWOV:Nasdaq)||9/6/2005||$8.40||$9.05||7.74%||69.1%||OB||7.63 Q||10.17 Q|
|Micromuse (MUSE:Nasdaq)||9/6/2005||$6.96||$7.38||6.03%||53.0%||RM||6.84 M|
|RealNetworks (RNWK:Nasdaq)||9/6/2005||$5.41||$8.05||48.80%||54.6%||OB||5.61 M|
|Sapient (SAPE:Nasdaq)||9/23/2005||$6.37||$5.98||-6.12%||39.1%||RM||6.50 M||9.97Q|
|Stellent (STEL:Nasdaq)||10/14/2005||$8.67||$9.79||12.92%||50.5%||OB||7.85M||9.03 Q||11.20 Q|
|Intellisync (SYNC:Nasdaq)||9/7/2005||$4.05||$5.54||36.79%||44.0%||OB||4.62 M|
|WebMethods (WEBM:Nasdaq)||9/23/2005||$6.45||$7.50||16.28%||40.6%||RM||6.38 Q|
|Ciena (CIEN:Nasdaq)||8/22/2005||$2.11||$2.58||22.27%||74.2%||RM||2.13 Q|
|Lucent Tech (LU:NYSE)||8/22/2005||$2.87||$2.72||-5.23%||56.2%||DM||2.68 M||4.47 Q|
|Terayon Comm (TERN:Nasdaq)||9/7/2005||$3.40||$2.37||-30.29%||53.7%||DM||3.18 M||4.16 Q|
|Tellabs (TLAB:Nasdaq)||9/21/2005||$9.50||$9.70||2.11%||40.6%||RM||10.16 M||11.11 Q|
|Westell (WSTL:Nasdaq)||9/21/2005||$3.64||$4.47||22.80%||26.7%||RM||3.56 Q||5.69 S|
|Source: Global Market Consultants|
Reading the TableTo qualify to be added to the shelves of the Tech Stock Five & Dime, a stock needs to be at least 40% undervalued according to my model. 12x3 weekly stoch: This is the 12x3 weekly slow stochastic reading. A stochastic is a measure of momentum on a scale of zero to 100. A reading of more than 80.0 is overbought (OB), and a reading below 20 is oversold (OS); RM indicates a rising reading, above 20 but below 80; and DM indicates a reading that is declining and below 80 but above 20. It's a sign that a stock has lost its momentum status when the stochastic falls below 80 after having been above it. Five-week MMA: The five-week modified moving average, calculated from a simple moving average updated each week by taking the prior sum, subtracting out the prior five-week MMA, adding in the latest weekly close and dividing by five. The MMA is slower than a simple moving average. It's considered a support or resistance (a positive if above, a negative if below). Value levels, risky levels and pivots: A value level is a price at which buyers should emerge on share-price weakness, while a risky level is a price at which sellers should reduce holdings on share-price gains. A pivot is a value or risky level that was violated during its time horizon, and which acts as a magnet during the remainder of that time horizon. These levels are calculated in weekly, monthly (M), quarterly (Q), semiannual and annual (A) time horizons, on the basis of the past nine closes in each time horizon. My theory is that the closes over a nine-year period are the summation of all bullish and bearish events for that market or specific stock.
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