Traders can attempt to capture the technology sector's remaining upside momentum, but deciding whether to add to holdings in this group is a tough call if you are a long-term investor. That said, technology remains the cheapest sector in the market according to my model, at 13.2% undervalued. Its weekly chart profile would stay positive on a close this week above the five-week modified moving average at 2137. With my quarterly risky level at 2319, the upside to the end of the year appears to be limited to 6.4% above Tuesday's close of 2178.
Leading technology higher is the Nasdaq 100 Unit Trust (QQQQ), which tested $40.91, a level not seen since January 2002. The upside into year-end is my quarterly resistance at $42.51. Weekly support lags at $39.04.
Semiconductors generally lead the Nasdaq higher, a key sector represented by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. The group is showing some improvement, but that improvement looks limited. The SOX's weekly chart profile will shift to positive at Friday's close if it's above its five-week modified moving average at 451.25. My monthly pivot is 438.20 with my quarterly resistance or risky level at 487.90, which should curb upside for the SOX.
Soon, we'll have more insight not only into semis but computer manufacturing and software. Together these are my three focus industries, and this week's tech stock earnings reports include both undervalued and overvalued companies in all three groups. By Friday morning, we will know whether demand for semiconductors remains strong, and if that demand is leading to business for leading semi equipment maker Applied Materials (AMAT - Get Report).Will Marvell Semiconductor (MRVL - Get Report) achieve yet another 52-week high despite being more than 20% overvalued? Is Network Appliance (NTAP - Get Report) taking market share from storage leader EMC (EMC - Get Report)? Does Autodesk (ADSK - Get Report) have the momentum for new highs despite being 15% overvalued? Is the turnaround at Hewlett-Packard (HPQ - Get Report) on track?