Breadth Returns to the Markets
So the S&P 500 got through the 1200 resistance level. But did you notice that the Nasdaq Composite essentially got back to where it was early last week? And the Russell 2000 is also back to last Monday's levels.
However, the most interesting development for me is that the breadth finally got moving. The majority of my indicators are calculated using various breadth measures, and if breadth stinks and can't string together a few days of positive readings, my indicators can't lift. Monday's strong breadth reading has pushed some of the indicators upward.
Now before I sing the praises of the rally, allow me to point out what wasn't good. Despite Monday's good readings, overall breadth has lagged. It needs to catch up.
Another thing that wasn't good -- on a short-term basis -- was the action in the Bank Index. It got to just shy of 100 and backed off. While that is to be expected, note that it closed on the low of the day.I've been constructive on this group for weeks now, and with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting later Tuesday as well as Monday's action -- and the fact that I seem to have gathered way too much company for my taste -- I would say a pullback is in order. In fact, a pullback in this group would make it better, as it's now quite overextended and needs a good shakeout. However, the chart that really caught my eye is the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX). I'd thought it would come down to the 430-440 area. It did, and it bounced from there. But it couldn't sustain that bounce, and last week it cratered. It's entirely possible we'll see it struggle Tuesday with the Dell (DELL) news after hours, which would contribute to the scenario I suspect could develop. I find myself looking at this chart and wondering if that move late last week is going to turn out to be a sort of island-reversal pattern. Recently I've written about several island reversals, but all have been at highs, or tops, such as the island reversal in Phelps Dodge (PD). There haven't been many opportunities for us to see potential island reversals at lows. Until now. For now, this is only a possibility, as we need to see that the move Friday remains "by itself" like an island, surrounded with no trading on either side. But I would also point out that Analog Devices (ADI) hasn't yet made a lower low and for the past year or so, we have seen this stock lead the semiconductor index. I continue to believe we will see ups and downs this week in the market as a whole.
Overbought/Oversold OscillatorsFor more explanation of these indicators, check out The Chartist's primer.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.
- Real Money + Doug Kass + 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV