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Missing the Boat on India

This column was originally published on RealMoney on Oct. 19 at 8:49 a.m. EDT. It's being republished as a bonus for readers.

Could there be anything more predictable than financial pundits touting that India is the place to invest?

Naturally, that market has done very nicely this year, and with a 20% gain it's far outpacing the lackluster S&P.

Yet, although I'm all in favor of momentum investing, the chart below shows that new buyers may be a bit late to the party.

Using a chart of The India Fund (IFN) to represent the Indian market, you can see that the stock did nothing for a long time.

Only in the past four months did it make its move, but that move might already be over.

My reasoning?

High-volume down days, or in this case weeks, are often a prelude to a selloff, or at least a lengthy move sideways.

That's been the case for the past two years, and what's happened recently?

Some high-volume down weeks.

That should tell you to let the pundits keep touting The India Fund, but for you personally to stay away for now.

At a minimum, at least let the stock make a new high before wading in.

Today, charts for the Dow, Halliburton (HAL), ConocoPhillips (COP), Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE), Network Appliance (NTAP) and Lam Research (LRCX).

Charts produced by TC2000, which is a registered trademark of Worden Brothers Inc.

And that is the final word from Sydney, where with two episodes to go on my season one DVD, I've concluded Lost just can't be based in reality. I mean there's no way the men look dirtier and dirtier each episode, while the women look like they just passed through the sample counter at Sephora!

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