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Inventory in the Tech Five & Dime

Let's update the status of the stocks on the shelves of my Tech Five & Dime.

On Aug. 22, I wrote about the top three tech stocks, according to my models, that were trading between a buck and $3. As the table below shows, Actuate ( ACTU) is up 6.3% since then, Lucent ( LU) is up 13.2%, and Ciena (CIEN) is up 25.1%.

On Sept. 6, I profiled the top three tech stocks under my models that were trading between $5 and $10: Interwoven (IWOV), which has fallen 2.7%; Micromuse (MUSE), up 13.2%; and RealNetworks (RNWK), up 5.6%.

On Sept. 7, I shared with readers the best-screened tech stocks trading between $3 and $5; Lucent graduated to that category on Aug. 24. Since then, Lucent is up 2.2%, Intellisync (SYNC) is up 9.6%, and Terayon Communication Systems ( TERN) is up 14.7%.

On Sept. 21, I decided to open shelves in the Tech Five & Dime by industry group, stocking up on office and computer equipment and computer manufacturers and electronic devices. Tellabs (TLAB) is already up 10.7%. On Sept. 23, I added a software company shelf.

In October, I plan to stock the shelves with low-priced semiconductor and computer-related companies.

Taking Inventory
Company Name Date Posted Price at Close Price on 9/30/2005 % Gain/Loss Under Valued Weekly Chart Value Level Pivot Risky Level
Stocks Between $1 and $3
Actuate 8/22/2005 $2.38 6.30% 56.80% Pos 2.14 Q 3.17 Q
Lucent 8/22/2005 $2.87 $3.25 13.24% 55.00% Pos 2.62 M 4.47 Q
Ciena 8/22/2005 $2.11 $2.64 25.12% 75.00% Pos 2.13 Q
Stocks Between $5 and $10
Interwoven 9/6/2005 $8.40 $8.17 -2.74% 75.00% Pos 7.63 Q 10.17 Q
Micromuse 9/6/2005 $6.96 $7.88 13.22% 56.20% Pos 7.00 M
RealNetworks 9/6/2005 $5.41 $5.71 5.55% 29.40% Pos 5.07 Q
Stocks Between $3 and $5
Lucent 9/7/2005 $3.18 $3.25 2.20% 55.00% Pos 2.62 M
Intellisync 9/7/2005 $4.05 $4.44 9.63% 55.80% Pos 4.03 M 4.64 M 10.36 A
Terayon 9/7/2005 $3.40 $3.90 14.71% 29.40% Pos 3.45 M 4.16 Q
Office & Computer Equipment
Ditech Comm (DITC:Nasdaq) 9/21/2005 $6.79 $6.74 -0.74% 39.10% Neg 4.25 M 11.75 S
Tellabs 9/21/2005 $9.50 $10.52 10.74% 34.30% Pos 8.15 M 10.37 M 11.11 Q
Tut Systems (TUTS:Nasdaq) 9/21/2005 $3.10 $3.25 4.84% 75.00% Neg 2.62 M 3.61 M 4.68 S
Westell Tech (WSTL:Nasdaq) 9/21/2005 $3.64 $3.64 0.00% 36.10% OS 3.50 Q 5.69 S
Computer Makers & Electronics
Gateway (GTW:NYSE) 9/21/2005 $2.60 $2.70 3.85% 74.90% Neg 2.23 M 2.80 Q 5.47 Q
SunMicro (SUNW:Nasdaq) 9/21/2005 $3.94 $3.93 -0.25% 24.20% Pos 3.66 Q 5.14 Q
SkyWorks (SWKS:Nasdaq) 9/21/2005 $6.84 $7.02 2.63% 60.10% Neg 6.07 M 7.74 Q 10.53 Q
Entrust (ENTU:Nasdaq) 9/21/2005 $5.51 $5.60 1.63% 0.40% Neg 3.76 Q 5.44 M 6.17 M
Sotware Companies
BEA Systems (BEAS:Nasdaq) 9/23/2005 $8.43 $8.99 6.64% 47.20% Neu 8.40 Q 9.28 W
Sapient (SAPE:Nasdaq) 9/23/2005 $6.37 $6.25 -1.88% 45.60% OS 5.70 W 6.71 M 9.97 Q
WebMethods (WEBM:Nasdaq) 9/23/2005 $6.45 $7.07 9.61% 36.30% OB 6.38 Q 7.17 W
Source: Global Market Consultants

Managing Risk/Reward

On Aug. 22, I wrote that Actuate was 62.9% undervalued and showed a monthly value level of $2.20. This price held on weakness Aug. 29. The shares are currently 62% undervalued. My quarterly value level at $2.14 should hold on weakness, and the upside is to my quarterly risky level at $3.17.

Lucent is 55.0% undervalued vs. 73.4% on Aug. 22. My monthly value level of $2.62 should hold on weakness, and the upside is to my quarterly risky level at $4.47.

Ciena has been weak since Aug. 22, but it held my monthly value level for August at $2.16. The stock remains 75% undervalued. My quarterly value level is $2.13, and I don't have a risky level at this time.

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