Inventory in the Tech Five & Dime
Let's update the status of the stocks on the shelves of my Tech Five & Dime.
On Aug. 22, I wrote about the top three tech stocks, according to my models, that were trading between a buck and $3. As the table below shows, Actuate ( ACTU) is up 6.3% since then, Lucent ( LU) is up 13.2%, and Ciena (CIEN) is up 25.1%.
On Sept. 6, I profiled the top three tech stocks under my models that were trading between $5 and $10: Interwoven (IWOV), which has fallen 2.7%; Micromuse (MUSE), up 13.2%; and RealNetworks (RNWK), up 5.6%.
On Sept. 7, I shared with readers the best-screened tech stocks trading between $3 and $5; Lucent graduated to that category on Aug. 24. Since then, Lucent is up 2.2%, Intellisync (SYNC) is up 9.6%, and Terayon Communication Systems ( TERN) is up 14.7%.On Sept. 21, I decided to open shelves in the Tech Five & Dime by industry group, stocking up on office and computer equipment and computer manufacturers and electronic devices. Tellabs (TLAB) is already up 10.7%. On Sept. 23, I added a software company shelf. In October, I plan to stock the shelves with low-priced semiconductor and computer-related companies.
|Company Name||Date Posted||Price at Close||Price on 9/30/2005||% Gain/Loss||Under Valued||Weekly Chart||Value Level||Pivot||Risky Level|
|Stocks Between $1 and $3|
|Actuate||8/22/2005||$2.38||6.30%||56.80%||Pos||2.14 Q||3.17 Q|
|Lucent||8/22/2005||$2.87||$3.25||13.24%||55.00%||Pos||2.62 M||4.47 Q|
|Stocks Between $5 and $10|
|Interwoven||9/6/2005||$8.40||$8.17||-2.74%||75.00%||Pos||7.63 Q||10.17 Q|
|Stocks Between $3 and $5|
|Intellisync||9/7/2005||$4.05||$4.44||9.63%||55.80%||Pos||4.03 M||4.64 M||10.36 A|
|Terayon||9/7/2005||$3.40||$3.90||14.71%||29.40%||Pos||3.45 M||4.16 Q|
|Office & Computer Equipment|
|Ditech Comm (DITC:Nasdaq)||9/21/2005||$6.79||$6.74||-0.74%||39.10%||Neg||4.25 M||11.75 S|
|Tellabs||9/21/2005||$9.50||$10.52||10.74%||34.30%||Pos||8.15 M||10.37 M||11.11 Q|
|Tut Systems (TUTS:Nasdaq)||9/21/2005||$3.10||$3.25||4.84%||75.00%||Neg||2.62 M||3.61 M||4.68 S|
|Westell Tech (WSTL:Nasdaq)||9/21/2005||$3.64||$3.64||0.00%||36.10%||OS||3.50 Q||5.69 S|
|Computer Makers & Electronics|
|Gateway (GTW:NYSE)||9/21/2005||$2.60||$2.70||3.85%||74.90%||Neg||2.23 M||2.80 Q||5.47 Q|
|SunMicro (SUNW:Nasdaq)||9/21/2005||$3.94||$3.93||-0.25%||24.20%||Pos||3.66 Q||5.14 Q|
|SkyWorks (SWKS:Nasdaq)||9/21/2005||$6.84||$7.02||2.63%||60.10%||Neg||6.07 M||7.74 Q||10.53 Q|
|Entrust (ENTU:Nasdaq)||9/21/2005||$5.51||$5.60||1.63%||0.40%||Neg||3.76 Q||5.44 M||6.17 M|
|BEA Systems (BEAS:Nasdaq)||9/23/2005||$8.43||$8.99||6.64%||47.20%||Neu||8.40 Q||9.28 W|
|Sapient (SAPE:Nasdaq)||9/23/2005||$6.37||$6.25||-1.88%||45.60%||OS||5.70 W||6.71 M||9.97 Q|
|WebMethods (WEBM:Nasdaq)||9/23/2005||$6.45||$7.07||9.61%||36.30%||OB||6.38 Q||7.17 W|
|Source: Global Market Consultants|
Managing Risk/RewardOn Aug. 22, I wrote that Actuate was 62.9% undervalued and showed a monthly value level of $2.20. This price held on weakness Aug. 29. The shares are currently 62% undervalued. My quarterly value level at $2.14 should hold on weakness, and the upside is to my quarterly risky level at $3.17. Lucent is 55.0% undervalued vs. 73.4% on Aug. 22. My monthly value level of $2.62 should hold on weakness, and the upside is to my quarterly risky level at $4.47. Ciena has been weak since Aug. 22, but it held my monthly value level for August at $2.16. The stock remains 75% undervalued. My quarterly value level is $2.13, and I don't have a risky level at this time.
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