TechWeek: Growth by the Numbers

Indeed, with a few relatively brief exceptions, shares of Oracle have traded between $12 and $14 for the last two years, appreciating by just 10%. Still, that's a better performance than other tech bellwethers; Microsoft(MSFT Quote), for example, has been essentially flat in the same time period, losing 3% of its value, while Cisco(CSCO Quote) lost 14% of its value, and Intel(INTC Quote) dropped 16%.

Buttigieg, whose company does not have a banking relationship with Oracle, added that his analysis does not imply a downward valuation for the stock.

Although the acquisition has met with plenty of buy-side cricitism (and some support on the sell side), it's worth noting that one of Oracle's major talking points is Siebel's installed base of some 4,000 customers, which in the second quarter pumped $122.8 million in recurring maintenance revenue onto the top line. Services and other revenue added another $112.5 million. PeopleSoft, of course, delivers even more maintenance revenue.

Moreover, those customers aren't defecting, despite major campaigns by arch-rival SAP(SAP Quote).

But then the PeopleSoft deal closed less than a year ago. As time goes by and maintenance agreements expire, the loyalty of customers thrust under the Oracle umbrella will be much easier to gauge. My bet: The vast majority will stick around. Ripping and replacing enterprise software is a painful, expensive proposition that few will undertake unless Oracle is so careless, or so arrogant, that it makes its new customer base utterly miserable.

Looking forward, there's sure to be a lot more discussion of the acquisition after the closing bell Thursday when Oracle reports earnings, and late next month at the company's analyst day in New York.

Making Cognos Loony?

If you blinked, you might have missed what Cognos(COGN Quote) called the biggest product launch in its history. Despite a showy Webcast to 12 cities, the launch of its Cognos 8 business intelligence software, the Canadian company's best hope to fend off Microsoft, didn't get a lot of attention outside the trade press.