Apple Nano Not Yet a Mania

Apple's iPod is something of a double-edged sword for the company. Strong sales revived its fortunes and ignited the stock price. But, conversely, investors have sold off Apple's stock in the past on the sign -- or hints -- of weak iPod sales, and they could do so again.

An Apple representative didn't return a call seeking comment; shares of Apple were trading recently up 17 cents, or 0.3%, to $50.99.

Of course, Apple could be having greater success with the nano than Wu believes -- or than our informal survey indicates. That certainly was the case this summer, when analysts were predicting a slowdown in iPod sales; contrary to those forecasts, Apple posted strong year-over-year and sequential sales growth.

Store representatives generally did not know or wouldn't disclose to TheStreet.com how many nanos they had sold or received. It could be that Apple shipped a far greater number of 2-GB nanos than 4-GB ones and was thus better able to meet demand.

And the company could be better prepared to meet demand this time around than it has been with past product debuts. After drawing flack in the past for not being able to meet initial demand for hot products, Apple has indicated in recent months that it was trying to address that issue. Analysts reported that the company agreed to buy up to 40% of Samsung's NAND flash production to meet demand for the iPod nano.

In its note, the Piper analysts said they believed Apple would be able to meet nano production. If the one- to three-day shipping lead time of the iPod nano increases, the report said, "Apple would likely be selling more iPod nanos than their initial aggressive expectations."