Apple vPod Concept Hasn't Ripened Yet

And that's despite already owning and using both an iPod shuffle and an iPod photo. The Motorola phone would enable me to always have on my phone some of the songs I've purchased from iTunes or burned from CDs. There are certainly times -- believe it or not -- when I don't have an iPod with me, but find myself standing in a line, or riding on a bus or in some other situation where a song or two would fit the bill.

Apple is going to try to dominate the portable (and stationary) video player world and duplicate the success it has had in the music world. But the video iPod and iShow products just aren't reality yet, and the market is probably not ready for them anyway. Part of the secret of Apple's success in the MP3 market was that it had let the market develop and get beyond the very early adopter stage before it got into the business. Being the first mover is not always advantageous, especially in the consumer market.

Millions of people had been freely trading MP3 files and burning CDs from MP3s and listening to those CDs in their cars and stereos before Apple made its move. While there are millions of video files being traded on piracy networks and sent via email, and hundreds of millions of videos available for download on the Internet, the mainstream user isn't exactly downloading those files, burning DVDs from those video files and watching them on a TV set. That day is coming, and Apple is certainly going to make a move into that market when the time is right. But that's not next week. And probably not anytime in the next quarter, or two or three.

I continue to believe that there are all kinds of ways to win with Apple here, and video consumer products will be added to the list, most likely in 2006. In the meantime, let's not get ahead of ourselves. From the iPod to iTunes and the new Motorola iTunes phone and especially given the growth of Apple's computer sales, I see plenty of growth drivers for now.

P.S. from TheStreet.com Editor-in-Chief, Dave Morrow:
It's always been my opinion that it pays to have more -- not fewer -- expert market views and analyses when you're making investing or trading decisions. That's why I recommend you take advantage of our free trial offer to TheStreet.com RealMoney premium Web site, where you'll get in-depth commentary and money-making strategies from over 50 Wall Street pros, including Jim Cramer. Take my advice -- try it now.