This column was originally published on RealMoney
on Aug. 2 at 8:59 a.m. EDT. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers.
For weeks now we've been hearing daily, if not hourly, commentary on
(CEO) bid for
Some are opposed to it; some are for it. It's turned into a national debate, and not just on Wall Street.
And while everyone is so focused on this aspect of China and oil, they have largely missed the monster move in
(PTR - Get Report).
Since early June PetroChina has rallied $30 while Unocal, the one with the bidding war out there, has moved $6. But that's not what I find so amazing.
What I find so amazing is that it took a move of that magnitude in PetroChina for the folks on TV to discover it.
Yes, suddenly Monday I heard them start chatting about how great this stock has been. Heck, I was feeling poorly about
having shown it as a positive chart back in early March
because it subsequently did absolutely nothing for three months.
But when a stock has moved like PetroChina has and no one notices it until it's had such a monster move, I tend to take notice.
So Monday I pulled up a weekly chart on this stock and calculated an initial target. Lo and behold, the calculation measures to about $90.
Keep in mind that these targets are not exact; they are meant to be general guides about where a stock might correct from, or even have a sideways move.
This chart has done nothing wrong -- it hasn't made a lower high -- but when a stock has moved like this one has and it is in its target zone and the media begin to notice it, it's usually time for it to correct or take a rest.
In the meantime, I found a stock that has a base and is seeing a pickup in volume, and one that -- at least so far -- has escaped the media's notice.
has been building a base for about seven or eight months now and if it can cross that downtrend line around $69, and do so on volume, it can emerge from this base.
For the market as a whole, we are now short-term overbought and although there is plenty of anecdotal evidence that folks have fallen in love with the market, the statistics on sentiment continue not to support any sort of extreme in sentiment.
For more explanation of these indicators, check out The Chartist's
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