Apprenticed Investor: Curb Your Enthusiasm
Decisions vs. Decision Making
One of the reasons that emotionally restricted investors have an advantage over everyone else is that they eliminate emotional decisions. It's a battle between impulsive choices, vs. a process for making rational decisions.
Without the tug of adrenaline and dopamine, you can stick to your original investing plan. That's actually the key problem with biochemical or hormonal decision-making: It's not that the decisions are necessarily so bad -- although they often are -- but even more significant, they derail your original investment plan.
As investors, you need a plan that allows you to save an adequate amount of money for retirement. We'll delve into this further in a future column but, suffice to say, the biggest problem with fear and greed is that in the blink of an endorphin, they can derail a well-thought strategy.Think of this in terms of food: Imagine you are on a carefully crafted diet. You eat only healthful meals from a list of ingredients that have a good balance of carbohydrates and protein, with a limited amount of fat. Now consider an impulsive snack. What are the odds that this cheat will fit into your planned diet? That's the key problem with emotional decision-making. When carefully designed strategies are supplanted by an impulsive choice, you have a recipe for poor performance. As Malcolm Gladwell's best-selling book Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking makes clear, unless you are an expert with decades of experience, instantaneous reactions can often have disastrous consequences. To be sure, the study has an inherent bias in it: The experiment was designed so "risk-taking was the most advantageous behavior." The less-fearful participants made higher return investment decisions. In reality, people have a tendency toward risk-averse economic decision-making. That aside, there are important lessons to be learned:
|1.||Expect to Be Wrong||2.||Your Fault, Reader|
|3.||The Wrong Crowd||4.||Bull or Bear? Neither|
|5.||Know Thyself||6.||Prepare for Battle|
|7.||Bite Your Tongue||8.||Don't Speak, Part 2|
|9.||The Zen of Trading||10.||The Folly of Forecasting|
|11.||Lose the News||12.||Tracking Elephants, Pt 1|
|13.||Tracking Elephants, Pt 2||14.||Nothing Doing|
|15.||Surviving Silly Season||16.||The Zen of Trading|
|Check back for more of Barry Ritholtz's
Apprenticed Investor series
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