Beware the Limits of Implied Volatility
That's near a 52-week high, and well above the stock's historical volatility of 36% over the past 60 days. Keeping premiums pumped is the anticipation of an FDA ruling on its migraine drug, scheduled for Aug. 4. Because the immediate future of the company rests on the outcome of this decision, it's no surprise the options are pricing in a move of nearly 24%, or $2.10, over the next three weeks.
But because volatility is nondirectional -- meaning it reflects the probability and magnitude of a price move but not its direction -- it can't be used on its own as a predictive indicator. "In assessing the validity of an option's predictive value, I like to see confirmative action in both the underlying stock and technical readings," says Larry McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis.
Surging call volume, for example, without an accompanying increase in the underlying share price or a technically constructive picture, shouldn't be viewed as a predictive indicator. However, above-average option volume is one of the most obvious flags for identifying predictive action, and you need to look further at that activity.
Large block transactions, which indicate institutional trading, are obviously more noteworthy than many small trades. Similarly, outright purchases or sales are better tells than spreads or hedging activity.One way to discern between volume that is predictive and volume that's merely hedging activity is to look for the increase in volume and open interest to spill over into other strikes. "This tells me that the market makers think it's a good play and want to go along," McMillan says. For example, if XYZ Co. saw an increase in call volume in the days ahead of an earnings report -- most of which would be concentrated in the near-term, at-the-money strikes -- market makers would see this as nothing more than speculative buying, without much merit and not worthy of consideration. In this case, the market makers who facilitated the trades (i.e., sold the calls) would look to lock in a small profit by buying the appropriate number of XYZ shares. The position is quickly hedged back to neutral. But assume there is no pending earnings report or news in XYZ, and an order to buy 10,000 April 25 calls hits the market. The market makers might believe this buyer represents "smart money" and decide they want to participate or play along. They would most likely turn to buying call options in other strikes and months to create a position with a greater long gamma, or sensitivity to price movement. This participation would appear as a noticeable increase in the volume and open interest in other strike prices and expirations. Sometimes implied volatility rises without a signifying event. In this case, a buyer is driving up prices and doesn't mind paying a premium for no apparent reason; this could indicate someone having superior information, sometimes obtained by inside channels or other means -- legal or otherwise -- and it often warrants monitoring. Several online broker firms, such as ThinkorSwim, OptionsXpress and InterActiveBrokers, supply tools that can help monitor unusual activity and changes in implied volatility. Third-party software is available for this purpose. And while these can often reveal a beautiful nugget that leads to a highly profitable trade, I'd warn against becoming overly reliant on these scans or using them as your sole criterion in making trading decisions. Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider Adolor and Pozen to be small-cap stocks. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.
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