Cash In Some Chips, Play Poker
In the waning days of 2004, this column predicted a
In February, I maintained that in a
I also expected the cap-weighted indices as well as the so-called average stock to struggle. So far this year, the indices have ranged from up a little to down mid-single digits. No one has gotten rich buying and holding any diversified index fund. And I don't think the second half will be much better.
My deep-value investment discipline has generated solid, if not spectacular, returns so far this year. Holdings in the energy, managed care, homebuilding, technology and industrial sectors have provided strong returns. Most, if not all, of these names were highlighted in columns over the past 12 months.On the downside, a few of the technology turnaround and value concept positions have disappointed. Also, my concern about difficult market conditions left me underinvested in many profitable holdings. A larger net long position would have been much better, despite the sloppy market. It feels as if investors, myself included, have made it much more difficult than it should have been. My outlook for the market is more of the same. I am not heading-for-the-hills negative, but I believe that the next move is down. I am not selling my favorite longs but rather hedging them with short positions (and I always use buy-stop losses in the process). Should stocks correct, I could be enticed into becoming more normally invested, especially in cheap stocks that have dipped on decent fundamentals. By now, you should recognize my buy discipline. But as I survey the investment landscape, beneath the sound bites and silly sell-side "blowout" labels, I am becoming more concerned about the equity market.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.
- Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV