At the midpoint of 2005 and just ahead of another earnings season, it's time to examine where investors can find the most potential for returns in the second half of the year.
My screening models indicate that the technology sector holds the most promise. I believe that the macroeconomic backdrop, business trends and acquisition action favor tech's chances as well.
Gains seen in the Nasdaq and SOX since the April lows point to a rotation into technology, which my models show as the cheapest sector, at 20.9% undervalued. The Nasdaq declined 5.4% in the first half of 2005, but since the April low of 1890, it's up 7.0%.
I have been tracking the Philadelphia semiconductor index for a major, chart-related moving-average crossover, with the SOX off 3.3% in the first half -- but up 11.3% since its April low of 376.64.According to my models, as the second half of 2005 begins, all sectors are fundamentally cheaper than they were at the end of 2004. As the table below shows, basic industries, energy and transportation ended 2004 more than 20% overvalued. Of these, only energy remains overvalued, but only by 6.3%. The largest swing was in transports, which went from 28.4% overvalued to 5.1% undervalued. My model shows that technology continues to be where the value has been and should be for 2005. Technology begins the second half of 2005 at 20.9% undervalued, vs. 11.7% undervalued at the end of 2005. Among my technology indices of focus, computer manufacturers are 31.8% undervalued, semiconductors are 28.0% undervalued, and software is 22.5% undervalued. In sum, away from technology, most sectors are within 5% of their fair value, with health care 9.3% undervalued and energy 6.3% overvalued. This is a compelling case for focusing on technology in the second half of 2005.
|Focus on Tech in Second Half
As the most undervalued sector, it demands the most attention
|Sectors||Valuation on Dec. 31, 2004||Valuation onJuly 1, 2005|
|Basic Industries||24.50% overvalued||3.73% undervalued|
|Capital Goods||17.65% overvalued||4.04% undervalued|
|Consumer Durables||12.41% overvalued||1.78% undervalued|
|Consumer Non-Durables||17.34% overvalued||2.46% overvalued|
|Consumer Services||11.88% overvalued||2.69% undervalued|
|Energy||22.15% overvalued||6.25% overvalued|
|Finance||14.44% overvalued||1.00% overvalued|
|Health Care||1.32% overvalued||9.32% undervalued|
|Public Utilities||9.02% overvalued||4.63% overvalued|
|Technology||11.67% undervalued||20.87% undervalued|
|Computer Manufacturers||31.79% undervalued|
|Software & EDP Services||22.48% undervalued|
|Transportation||28.44% overvalued||5.13% undervalued|
|Source: Global Market Consultants Ltd.|