Seven Reasons Why the Bears Might Be Right

I'd wait a week to see what develops before I do any buying. And I'd use the time to study names like these:

Chiquita Brands International(CBQ), which just bought the fresh-cut salad business of Performance Food Group(PFGC) in order to extend its fresh-cut business from fruit to other produce.

Atwood Oceanics(ATW), which owns eight drilling rigs, five of which will come off existing drilling contracts in 2005, in a business where day rates are climbing. For example, the day rate for the company's Seahawk rig under its current contract is $45,900 a day; under its new contract slated to start in the summer of 2006 the day rate will go up to $68,340.

Corn Products International(CPO), a Jubak's Pick that has been pummeled to a 25% loss for what I believe will turn out to be a one-quarter problem with the cost of corn.

Changes to Jubak's Picks

Sell Main Street Banks: I still think this is a stock that will pay off in the long run. As a dominant bank in the Atlanta suburbs, Main Street Banks is positioned to take advantage of the spread of that city.

When I bought this stock on Sept. 10, 2004, I thought the financial markets had overreacted to worries that the Federal Reserve would quickly ramp up interest rates. Bank stocks would, I figured, do fine as soon as investors realized that the odds of the Federal Reserve raising rates in 50-basis-point jumps were just about nil. I've wound up being way, way early on that thesis.

I've decided to sell this stock now and revisit it in the fall if investors start to rethink their opinion on bank stocks. I'm taking a 15% loss in these shares since I added them to Jubak's Picks on Sept. 10, 2004 at $29.20. (Full disclosure: I will be selling my shares of Main Street Banks.)

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