Drug Distributors Say Ouch

Looking ahead, Fein clearly sees the need for a more balanced compensation system.

"Manufacturers should no longer bear sole responsibility for the majority of wholesaler compensation," he concludes.

Lingering Pain

In the meantime, many analysts remain understandably nervous about the group.

They have seen drug distributors repeatedly disappoint investors, and they fear more of the same for a while. To be fair, Thomas Weisel analyst Steven Halper believes that AmerisourceBergen's guidance -- previously dismissed as too aggressive -- may finally be achievable after this week's steep reduction. But he warns that others in the group will probably follow with reductions of their own.

Ultimately, he believes that the worst is yet to come and the transition will continue to be a "bumpy" one. David Veal, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, tends to agree.

The AmerisourceBergen warning "highlights the persistence of tough fundamentals for drug distributors," wrote Veal, who has an equal-weight rating on AmerisourceBergen shares. "We continue to believe that the transition to a fee-for-service business model will take longer and prove to be less profitable than is widely believed and expect that these stocks may struggle to perform as a result."