Hotel Sector Strong

With crude oil at historically high levels, some investors may worry that higher prices at the pump could dampen travel plans.

But Matt Quinn, senior lodging and gaming analyst at Zack's Investment Research, says that shouldn't be a factor for the large hotel companies.

"On the demand side, I wouldn't say that higher fuel would hurt these guys, especially the guys in the full-scale luxury market, which is driven by high-end business travelers and upper-end leisure travelers," he said. "They're unlikely to be impacted much by fuel prices."

Zack's neither does nor seeks to do business with companies it covers, and Quinn owns no shares of companies he covers.

Both Falcone and Kazim agree and cite a PricewaterhouseCoopers study showing gas prices need to rise 23% to cause a 1.0 percentage-point decline in hotel occupancy levels.

Quinn believes shares of Starwood, Marriott and Hilton can return to levels around their respective 52-week highs of $61.45, $68 and $23.36, which roughly equate to multiples of about 12 times enterprise value to EBITDA. For now, those multiples will serve as a cap on the stocks' appreciation, he says.

Still, Kazim said positive revpar trends could deliver earnings surprises, allowing stocks to go higher without inflating multiples.

>To order reprints of this article, click here: Reprints