Flashing Back to Nasdaq 5000

Here's some information that may interest GuruNet investors: Google ads are hardly a distinguishing feature on any Web site. Hundreds, if not thousands, of blogs run them, including one written by venture capitalist Fred Wilson, who recently disclosed he made a whopping $500 from the ads (which he donated to the Grameen Foundation). GuruNet's market cap jumped $19 million on that news.

Irrational surges on trivial news is a hallmark of speculative trading. So does GuruNet's bizarre trading, along with hotter VC and IPO activity and renewed economic optimism, mean the market is going to plunge more than 50% over the next few years? Nope. But taken together, they are early indicators that even if some investors learned their bitter lesson from the market crash, they don't care.

Speculative investing in loss-making companies hardly qualifies as a bubble. But it does raise a dilemma that investors haven't had to face for the past five years: When stocks start defying valuations and rocket upward, everyone must make a choice -- either sit on the sidelines watching your peers rake in money, join the game of musical chairs and pray you'll get out before the music stops, or take the plunge and start believing that the sky's the limit.

For those choosing the third option, allow me to be the first to say it: Maybe things really are different this time.

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