The Super Bowl of Stents

"We continue to expect that clinical outcomes for the two stents will be similar," the firm concluded. "We would not expect any significant market share shifts as a result of Reality data."

Goldman Sachs analysts don't own shares in any of the medical device companies mentioned in this article. They have outperform ratings on Medtronic and Boston Scientific but no rating on J&J. The firm has had investment banking relationships with each company, and Goldman Sachs is advising J&J in its acquisition of Guidant.

In January, the Journal of the American Medical Association published an article saying that Cypher "may be superior" to Taxus based on a direct comparison of the two stents.

But the study contained many qualifications -- including a small sample size -- and the authors said a better comparison would be the Reality test, which tracks nearly 1,400 people. The study was conducted by German hospital researchers and financed by a German university-based hospital. They originally presented their findings at a cardiology conference in Munich in September.

More Stent Studies

Also in Orlando, Boston Scientific will present results of continuing research on Taxus to determine how well a slow-release version of the drug-coated stent deals with hard-to-treat cases.

If these Taxus results aren't convincing, Boston Scientific "always has the option of developing the moderate release version of Taxus, which showed impressive results" in another company-funded study, Goldman Sachs said.

As for Medtronic, analysts appear to have modest expectations for the Endeavor study. Goldman Sachs analysts predict that Endeavor data "will suggest that the stent is viable in niche applications," adding that they doubt the stent could reach the U.S. market until late 2007.

"We would not anticipate any significant risk in Medtronic's stock" after the test results are presented, the Goldman Sachs report said. "On the other hand, there is a chance albeit small, that the ... results could be better than expected, suggesting solid upside to the shares."

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