Last Shot for SCO Group

The problem is that SCO has yet to offer compelling evidence that Linux contains Unix code and that SCO even owns the rights to that code, according to Cornett and lawyers tracking the case.

"They have not presented an argument compelling to IT managers, who understand software," Cornett noted. That makes him think SCO would have an even more difficult time making its case before a less tech-savvy jury. A jury trial in the IBM case has been scheduled for November 2005.

Heather Meeker, a lawyer in the Silicon Valley office of Greenberg Traurig who has been watching the litigation, echoed that sentiment.

"The general perception is that SCO's case is very weak, and when they are called upon to provide the information that IBM has asked them to provide -- which is to identify the exact infringing material that has been put into IBM products such as Linux -- they will not be able to provide anything convincing," said Meeker, who specializes in business transactions for technology clients and open-source software licensing issues. "The more you know about the facts, the weaker the case seems."

Still, one buy-side source who is long the stock said it's premature to dismiss SCO before IBM turns over discovery materials in the nearly two-year battle. Among other things, SCO wants access to what is known as IBM's "revision control system," which tracks and documents aspects of Linux's development and could shed light on any role Unix had in its genesis.

SCO also charges that IBM has failed to provide it with all relevant correspondence about Linux from its top executives.

The buy-side source believes that the judge's ruling on that motion-to-compel could be a major catalyst for SCO's stock if it's in SCO's favor. The ruling is expected in the next couple of weeks.