The Case for a Blowout Holiday

This week, talk of continued sales disappointments trickled over the wire, as the consumer research firm, ShopperTrak, estimated that retail sales on the final Saturday before Christmas were $6.7 billion, down 7% from the same Saturday last year. Also, Wal-Mart stuck with its reduced forecast for same-store sales up 1% to 3% in December.

However, monthly same-store sales results from companies tracked by ICSC exclude online sales, as do data reported by ShopperTrak. Meanwhile, nonstore retail, which includes e-commerce and catalogue sales, was one of the strongest categories in the government's sales results for November, up 12.9% compared to the same month last year.

Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners, said the government's strong year-over-year results paint a more accurate picture of shopping strength, which is actually quite strong.

"The biggest constraint to even stronger growth this year is neither lack of consumer demand, nor a lack of 'must-have' items, but of physical shopping and transaction infrastructure," wrote Johnson in a research note out Monday.

His consulting firm has documented widespread congestion from shopping center visits from Connecticut to Arizona, marked by long lines at registers and traffic backups in parking lots and adjacent highway exit ramps.

The crowds may be increasing the popularity of online shopping this season. On Monday, industry watchdogs all but confirmed that Web shopping is enjoying a banner holiday. ComScore Networks said online sales "dramatically accelerated" in the five-day period ending last Friday. Consumers spent $2.03 billion during the span, marking an increase of 49% vs. the corresponding period last year.

"This year, more than ever before, we are seeing that online spending is really becoming mainstream," said Graham Mudd, a spokesman with comScore. "It really isn't an early-adopter medium anymore. A pretty sizable percentage of the population buys online now. This is the continuation of a trend that we've been observing for years now, and we expect it to continue."