Bill Snyder
Updated from 7:43 a.m. EST
Silicon Valley's longest-running soap opera will come to a climax of sorts Friday night, when the holders of more than 370 million shares of PeopleSoft(PSFT Quote - Cramer on PSFT - Stock Picks) finally decide if they want to sell their stake to Oracle(ORCL Quote - Cramer on ORCL - Stock Picks) for $24 a share. The campaign ended in much the same way it began nearly 18 months ago, amid a welter of name-calling, conflicting claims and deep personal bitterness. One thing the last hectic days of combat lacked, however, was a clear handle on who's really ahead. For its part, PeopleSoft preferred to play the underdog, telling investors and reporters that it expects to lose this round of the vote. "We're thinking Oracle will come in with about 65% of the shares tendered," said one source close to the target company. Oracle sources, on the other hand, told reporters "it's too close too call," and laughed at PeopleSoft's claims. Spin and counter-spin aside, the market itself appears undecided. Shares of PeopleSoft popped when Oracle raised its offer by $3 last month, but they have been in a holding pattern during November. If traders were more certain that Oracle would prevail, shares of PeopleSoft would climb closer to the offer price. If a PeopleSoft victory looked likely, shares would be falling. Some analysts think the stock will trade as low as the midteens if the $8.8 billion hostile takeover fails. When pressed, however, buy-side sources, who carefully didn't stick their necks out by allowing their names to be printed, generally believe Oracle has the edge. Sell-siders were more willing to go on the record, and mostly on Oracle's side. SG Cowen software analyst Drew Brosseau thinks it's more likely that a majority of PeopleSoft shareholders will tender their shares to Oracle. "You certainly don't lose anything by tendering," Brosseau noted. He said it's a pretty simple decision when investors "stare at the choice between $24 in cash on Friday or a high-teens stock price on Monday."
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