Kudlow vs. Abelson on Jobs and the Economy

For instance, in the 1991 recession, unemployment peaked at 7.8% in June 1992. That was a full 14 months after the recession of 1991 ended. In the double-dip recession of 1982, unemployment peaked at 10.8%. In the recession from 1973-75, unemployment peaked at 9%. For the recession of 1969-70, the unemployment rate didn't peak for a full two years, finally topping out at 5.9%.

Going back further, the recession of April 1960-February 1961 had the unemployment rate peak at 7.1% in May 1961. And on and on. (The unemployment rate still hasn't come down from the pre-recession low before the recession of 1953. I guess the economy has been horrible ever since.)

Every postwar recovery recession had a higher peak, or trough to peak, than the recession we just experienced. Sure, it's easy to pull out some facts and say that this is the weakest recovery ever. But saying that is just plain wrong and skews the statistics inappropriately.

Also, this recession was one of the weakest in terms of its effect on consumer spending. Looking at personal consumption expenditures of durable goods in real dollars, this was the shallowest recession ever. During this recession there was no quarterly dip at all in that statistic except for a tiny dip of less than 0.2% between the first quarter and second quarter of 2001.

In the recession of the early 1990s, that number went down for four straight quarters before recovering. In the recession of the early 1980s, the statistic dropped by over 15% before bouncing back up. The recession of the mid-1970s also saw a 15% decline in real consumer spending on durables.

If you drop a tennis ball from the 10th floor, it might bounce to the second floor. If you drop it from the first floor, it won't bounce as high.

So when you're looking at whether a recovery is "the weakest ever" by comparing it with the recovery after other recessions, it's very helpful -- and necessary -- to use the beginning of the recession as your starting point, and not the end. Otherwise, the statistics are meaningless, the point is moot and everyone gets depressed listening to you.