Why Oregon Matters to Bush, Kerry and You

Editor's note: Jon D. Markman writes a weekly column for CNBC on MSN Money that is republished here on TheStreet.com. He's also a regular contributor to RealMoney, TheStreet.com's subscription site. If you'd like to see all of Jon Markman's RealMoney commentary, click here for information about a free trial.

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The road to the White House this year leads through Oregon. The state has voted Democrat in the last four presidential elections, but that may not happen this year. Both President Bush and Sen. Kerry have treated Oregon as a so-called swing state, and have heavily campaigned there with personal appearances, advertising and direct mail.

This matters to investors for two reasons: Oregon has the country's highest unemployment rate, and the state's industrial base is split nearly evenly between the uncertain new promise of technology and the musty old promise of heavy industry. If a candidate can make his message resonate here, he can be attractive just about anywhere else as well. As goes Oregon, so goes the nation.

From an investment point of view, many of the state's businesses were so hurt during the bear market that the market has treated the entire state as a value play. A candidate who can persuade voters there that he will turn the place into a growth play will help both himself and investors win big over the next four years.

Jobs Lost, Incomes Drop

How can a president do that, and which stocks should you play for a rebound? Let's start with some alarming figures, then go straight into my equity forecasts.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oregon has lost almost 25,000 manufacturing jobs over the past four years, and family income has dropped by almost $1,500 per year. The official unemployment rate in August was 7.4%, worst in the nation. According to Phil Romero, professor of business administration at the University of Oregon's Lundquist College of Business, structural unemployment in many rural counties formerly dependent on logging runs as high as 20%.