Bells' Fiber Plan Looking Frayed

Excitement about the potential for massive fiber upgrades has already helped attract investors to stocks such as Advanced Fiber (AFCI Quote) and Corning (GLW Quote), as analysts make guesses about key suppliers and the size of the industry's war chest.

A lot of big numbers have been bandied about. UBS analyst Nikos Theodosopoulos estimates that if Verizon hits its fiber rollout target next year, it will have to spend $3.2 billion on the effort. Theodosopoulos predicts that suppliers such as fiber cable maker Corning and networking gearmakers ADC (ADCT Quote) and Advanced Fiber Communications would be the beneficiaries of this presumed windfall.

A Verizon representative declined to comment on the estimates but said the company expects to spend between $800 million to $1 billion on its FTTP plan this year.

Wiggling

All that said, industry observers say that while the Bells have enjoyed some flattering attention for their big fiber strategy, a closer look at the plan shows there's plenty of wiggle room in terms of actual spending.

Verizon, for example -- the leader with its FTTP campaign -- has a target of "passing" a million homes with fiber this year. It aims to pass between two million and four million homes by next year. That's not a number of actual connections, however -- it simply counts up the residences that potentially could be served with the fiber network.

Meanwhile, the nation's No. 2 telco, SBC, has an even more nebulous four-year plan to take fiber into half its customers' neighborhoods. Never mind that SBC's fiber strategy stops short of the home and instead relies on good old copper wire connections to carry a faster signal.