Googling Future With Ghost of IPOs Past

Instead, Google's software and search services have become a virtual fixture for people trying to find information amidst billions of Web sites. And the company is offering an expanding array of services like the new "gmail" email service to attract a bigger audience for the targeted advertisements that bring in most of Google's revenue.

Like Cisco co-founders Len Bosack and Sandy Lerner, Page and Brin have brought in more experienced managers to run their Stanford spin-off. Google's IPO plans took form under the direction of chairman and CEO Eric Schmidt, who joined in 2001 after a stint running Novell (NOVL Quote).

To be sure, buying shares at an IPO can be a risky endeavor. Who can forget the millions of average AT&T (T Quote) employees clamoring to get a piece of the company's April 2000 spin-off of AT&T Wireless (AWE Quote) at the "bargain" IPO price of $29.50. The shares dropped within days and traded for under $5 less than three years later.

Even after AT&T accepted this year's acquisition offer from Cingular, the shares have lost more than half their value from the IPO, while the S&P 500 is down less than 30%.

As many savvy value investors know, IPO shares often take a dive 180 days after being priced when so-called lockup agreements that bar insiders from unloading shares expire. Google said yesterday that 38.5 million shares would be eligible for sale on the open market after 90 days and 170.8 million after 180 days.

This is my inaugural column for TheStreet.com. As may be obvious from my take on the upcoming search engine IPO, I'm a contrarian by nature. If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is. But if everybody says it's too good to be true, I'm suspicious. Going forward, I'll seek to uncover and go beyond the conventional wisdom to explain what's driving the financial markets, sectors within the equity market or even specific stocks.

Take it all with a grain of salt: After all, I didn't buy any shares of cisco Systems with a lower case "c."