RFID Tempts, but Opportunity's Elusive

But Weinfeld's 2005 earnings estimate of 40 cents a share is significantly higher than the Street consensus of 26 cents a share gathered by Thomson First Call. And including cash, the stock now trades at 21 times the 2005 consensus estimate for earnings.

Another software company, VeriSign, sits in a unique position in the evolving RFID universe. As manager of the majority of Internet domain names, VeriSign routes roughly 10 billion Internet Web site look-ups per day. The company recently won a contract to manage a similar directory envisioned for RFID's electronic codes.

But again, this win won't immediately boost VeriSign's top line, in part because Wal-Mart initially is bypassing the company's central directory. Consequently, analysts aren't expecting VeriSign to begin to benefit from RFID until 2005 at the earliest.

By then, retailers should be closer to hitting their stride with RFID and the painful early miles may be behind them.