Oracle vs. DOJ: Analysts, Lawyers See Different Trial

However, any strength in PeopleSoft shares based on speculation of an Oracle trial victory could be premature, he said, suggesting the takeover target will need to lower its guidance for the second half of the year before the judge issues an opinion.

Taking a similar, but less direct, view as Barnicle, American Technology Research analyst Donovan Gow wrote Tuesday: "After more than two weeks of testimony, it is becoming increasingly clear that the DOJ's case against ORCL is not the sure bet that many investors thought it would be."

Gow cited testimony from Accenture(ACN Quote) partner Christy Bass and internal PeopleSoft documents portraying Microsoft(MSFT Quote) as a serious threat in the enterprise market.

The trial remains a very close fight, Gow acknowledged, but he believes that if Oracle can continue to score points -- or just hold even -- the possibility of an Oracle victory could drive PeopleSoft's stock to the $21 bid. (Gow has a buy rating on PeopleSoft; his firm doesn't do investment banking with the company.)

Recently, PeopleSoft shares were up 31 cents, or 1.7%, to $18.98 while Oracle shares were higher by 36 cents, or 3.2%, to $11.52.

Some legal observers, meanwhile, take another view.

"My sense is the government's case appears to be getting stronger and stronger," said Robert Doyle, an antitrust lawyer with Sheppard Mullin Richter & Hampton in Washington, D.C.

The Legal View

Doyle, who is receiving daily notes from a legal research assistant attending the trial, believes the government's customer witnesses are successfully helping the judge understand the difference between the midlevel and high-end software markets.

Olev Jaakson, the legal assistant attending the trial for Doyle's firm, agreed the DOJ is still ahead. "Oracle's counsel has often pointed [out] holes in [the DOJ's] argument," he acknowledged. "But a lot of the things they point out are select examples and often not the whole story, and the DOJ will reach back to the same document and give context."