Halliburton Shrugs Off Bribe Probe

But government authorities failed to intervene, Waxman wrote, despite questions raised about the legality of the contract by both the Army Materiel Command and the General Accounting Office. Like many Democrats, Waxman is challenging the process that allowed Halliburton to secure the big Iraqi contract -- valued at $7 billion -- without competition from its peers.

Seasonality

Wall Street appears far less concerned. At least five major analysts have upgraded Halliburton's stock to the equivalent of buy since last fall. And even those with hold recommendations cite reasons, outside government probes, for their more cautious view.

Prudential analyst Grant Borbridge simply believes that positive developments -- including an asbestos settlement and future earnings growth -- already have been figured into Halliburton's stock price. Meanwhile, SIG Susquehanna analyst Kevin Wood believes that oil service firms are good long-term investments. However, he suspects that Halliburton and two of its competitors -- Baker Hughes (BHI Quote) and Weatherford International (WFT Quote) -- could be "stuck in a negative trading pattern" right now due to fears about falling oil prices and the historically weak seasonal performance of oil service stocks in general.

Cohan, for one, is convinced that analysts will remain focused on Halliburton's fundamentals -- rather than its negative headlines -- as long as Cheney stays in office. He sees the potential for downside in Halliburton's shares, however, if the vice president gets replaced.

Cohan feels there is a possibility that Bush could choose a running mate without Cheney's Halliburton baggage or that the president could simply lose the November election altogether. If so, he says, the Halliburton investigations could start to heat up.

"One of the things that's keeping a floor under the stock is the current structure in the White House," Cohan said. "As long as Cheney is vice president, I would expect the downside for Halliburton investors would be limited."