The spring storm in the Treasury market is leaving bondholders scrambling for shelter. Since March 17, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has gone from 3.65% to 4.42% at one point (on Wednesday) and investor sentiment toward Treasuries is at its lowest in at least 12 years, according to a weekly poll of clients by J.P. Morgan Chase.
Some analysts, like Andrew Harding, portfolio manager for Armada Funds, say the majority of the damage already has been done, but rates could still possibly rise another 25 to 50 basis points by year's end.
Paul Mendelsohn, technical strategist for Windham Financial, offers a gloomier forecast, saying that "if the 10-year breaks through 4.66%, there's not much resistance until 5.5%, which was the high in March 2002."
Nevertheless, for fixed-income investors searching for that elusive umbrella in the sudden storm, there are a few strategies to consider in a rising rate environment.