Motorola Has Tech Crystal Ball

Investors are looking for glimmers of a turnaround at Motorola (MOT Quote - Cramer on MOT - Stock Picks), but analysts know better than to dream of an upside surprise.

With a newly installed CEO, recent wireless infrastructure wins in China, slight optimism about the handset market and a forthcoming semiconductor IPO, Motorola is showing signs that its perennially just-around-the-corner recovery will come into full view this year.

Last week, two brokerage firms initiated coverage on Motorola with buy ratings, each citing Motorola's appeal as a turnaround story. Moreover, tech stocks across the board have surged in recent weeks, amid signs that demand for tech and telecom gear is on the upswing. Motorola is a major player in many of the markets that have been the subject of the most fervent investor speculation.

Yet given Motorola's talent for coming up short on the execution of well-made plans, Wall Street isn't exactly giddy about the company's prospects. Motorola should outline those after the market closes Tuesday, when it releases fourth-quarter earnings.

Shares in the Schaumburg, Ill.-based wireless tech manufacturer rose nearly 4% Friday to trade at $16.92. That's more than double the stock's 52-week low of $7.59, but about even with where the stock was trading, on a split-adjusted basis, a decade ago.

For the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call are expecting earnings per share of 13 cents, a level that would be even with the fourth quarter of 2002. Revenue is expected to be $7.7 billion, up from $7.5 billion in the corresponding quarter one year earlier.

While analysts will be listening for all traces of the turnaround story on the conference call Tuesday afternoon, information could be slim about a few key elements.

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One of those is the new chairman and CEO himself, Ed Zander. The Sun Microsystems (SUNW Quote - Cramer on SUNW - Stock Picks) chief operating officer was tapped to take over from hereditary leader Chris Galvin in mid-December, and he officially started only two weeks ago.