Weighing Biovail's Claims

According to Trooper Sciuto's report, this vehicle, a 1997 Ford tractor trailer, was being operated by Penner International on behalf of the shipper, Biovail. The report describes the trailer's contents as having a total weight of 11,690 pounds -- all of it Wellbutrin XL, as the truck had no other cargo.

Based on the shipment's weight, one can ascertain the number of pills in the shipment. Knowing this figure, it's possible to calculate the dollar value of end-user sales for GlaxoSmithKline -- and most important, the royalty revenue to be recorded by Biovail.

RealMoney estimates that there were just over 5 million pills on the Biovail truck when it was involved in the accident, which equates to gross end-user sales of $14 million. That's far less than the $50 million to $60 million guided to by Biovail executives on their conference call.

Our estimate of Biovail royalty revenue generated from these end-user sales: $2.1 million.

What follows is a breakdown of how those figures were derived.

The Formula

According to Trooper Sciuto's report, the total weight of the shipment involved in the accident came from two payloads of Wellbutrin XL of 3,300 pounds and 8,360 pounds, respectively. Biovail has acknowledged that the shipment contained Wellbutrin pills packaged in both bulk form and finished, or retail, bottles. Giving the company the benefit of the doubt, let's assume there were 3,330 pounds of pills in finished retail containers, with the remaining 8,360 pounds in bulk containers.

Finished or retail bottles of Wellbutrin XL are shipped to pharmacies in 30-pill bottles weighing 39 grams, according to a pharmacist who weighed the package for RealMoney.com. This equates to 1.3 grams per pill, including the weight of the packaging.