Last-Minute Shoppers Unlikely to Save Retailers

Sales Bar Set Too High

To be sure, this holiday season will likely be much better than last year's. Core retail sales -- which include results from general merchandisers, apparel stores, furniture and home furnishings outlet, sporting goods and other stores -- grew by just 1.6% last December and just 2.6% in November last year. Those numbers marked one of the worst retail holiday seasons in years.

In contrast, this holiday season has gotten off to a much better start. Core retail sales grew by 4.8% last month, the National Retail Federation estimates. Retail analysts have projected that such sales will rise more than 5% in December. But despite the year-over-year improvement, overall sales at core retailers trail the 5.7% pace forecast by the NRF for the combined November and December period. Even the e-commerce sector, which has been the source of some of the fastest growth in retail, appears to be growing slower than some analysts projected this holiday season.

Of course, some retail chains could have a joyous holiday season. Analysts are projecting that retailers catering to more affluent shoppers, such as Tiffany's (TIF Quote), Neiman Marcus Group (NMGa Quote) and Nordstrom (JWN Quote), will see strong sales.

"The top 35% of the population in terms of wealth, they're doing fine," said Hastings. "They're doing quite a bit of shopping at good price points."

But many other companies may have less to celebrate. Wal-Mart, most notably, on Monday repeated earlier statements that its same-store sales in December are coming in at the low end of its projected 3% to 5% range. (Same-store sales compare results at like outlets open for more than one year.)

The company warned investors and analysts last month that it wasn't seeing the pick-up in consumer spending that investors and analysts were expecting. Indeed, guidance from many retailers heading into the holiday season did not match the ebullience of analysts and investors.