Cable Holding Its Own Amid DSL Onslaught

Cox, says Gupta, looks to add at least 150,000 high-speed data subscribers in the quarter, compared to the 157,000 it added in the corresponding quarter one year earlier.

Though subscriber-addition comparisons to year-ago figures don't appear to be remarkably improved for cable operators other than Comcast, additions will be up 29% sequentially from the second quarter industrywide. That reflects seasonal effects in the cable business -- for example, students returning to campus and signing up for high-speed access -- as well as expanded retail distribution for cable modems and a larger population of potential customers served by upgraded systems able to deliver high-speed data.

Based on numbers supplied by Smith Barney telecom analyst Michael Rollins, Gupta estimates that DSL providers will claim 37% of net additions for residential broadband Internet service in the third quarter, compared to 62% for cable operators. The split was 32% for DSL and 67% for cable in the second quarter, estimates Gupta.

Figures suggest there will be 653,000 residential DSL additions in the third quarter, up 35% from the net new customers added in the second quarter of 2003, and up 10% from the additions in the third quarter of 2002.