There Is a Method to the Rally's Madness

PC unit sales have been "reasonable," he noted, but average prices are down double-digits.

Don't Believe the (Lack of) Hype

Such niggling concerns aside, the optimists' faith is further underpinned by a somewhat subversive notion: Managements are sandbagging outlooks because of fears of crying wolf (again), class-action lawsuits or simply the aforementioned lack of visibility -- or some combination thereof.

"By and large you're hearing management stay more conservative than Wall Street thinks is really the case," said Klee. "That's why stocks are doing relatively well."

Examples of this unintended consequence of Regulation FD, which prohibits executives from giving specific guidance to individual analysts, include Lazard Freres analyst Cliff Su declaring Veritas' outlook as being "brighter than management caution would suggest."

Similarly, Jamie Friedman of Fulcrum Global Partners declared: "We believe Microsoft is downplaying the PC recovery that is taking place."

Confessions of a Tech Skeptic

By attempting to understand why some folks remain bullish and believe there is a connection between quarterly results and stock prices, I'm not necessarily agreeing with them.

Whatever you may think of the optimistic arguments, it's important to note that there are underpinnings to the rally beyond sheer momentum and speculation. In any event, bearish dogma hasn't been too profitable lately, in case you hadn't noticed.

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