Antitrust Argument Against Oracle Won't Be an Easy Sell

Connecticut's complaint did not give HHI numbers for each of the software markets. And it may be parsing the software market differently, excluding, for example, middle-market sales.

Late Wednesday, Oracle CEO Larry Ellison replied to Connecticut's complaint, saying in a letter: "It has never been our intention to force any customers to migrate to Oracle Applications. In fact, we have consistently said that we would extend PeopleSoft's current support deadlines, providing service through our much larger global support organization.

"We understand that maintaining your satisfaction as a customer is the key to the success of this transaction."

Walravens, whose company does not have a banking relationship with either company, noted that the government could look at another software segment, but it appears that other markets, including total software applications and CRM, would be even less concentrated.

Moreover, "PeopleSoft's antitrust arguments against Oracle are undercut by the fact that PeopleSoft itself is seeking to consolidate the number four player in the space, J.D. Edwards. It is very difficult for the number three player (PeopleSoft) to argue against being acquired by the number two player (Oracle) and simultaneously argue in favor of acquiring the number four player (J.D. Edwards)," Walravens added.

Still, antitrust litigation is no joke (just ask Bill Gates). It can drag on for years and Blumenthal is threatening to build a multistage coalition to cut the database giant down to size. This race is far from over.