Aquila Paying for Loan-Fueled Reprieve

Aquila (ILA Quote) has paid so much for breathing room that, in the end, it may have no money left for anything else.

UBS Warburg analyst Ronald Barone warned Thursday that Aquila must continue to sell off assets just to meet its debt obligations through the end of next year. After that, Barone predicted, Aquila will run out of cash and face another liquidity crisis like the one it just escaped -- but with few assets left to sell.

Ultimately, Barone believes Aquila will be cash flow negative by 2005 and, therefore, sees no value in the company's shares using traditional cash flow analysis. Even by adding up the pieces of Aquila, he concludes that the company is worth just $2 a share -- or 36% less than the $3.13 the stock last fetched before his Thursday morning report.

While Barone's new $2 target price is higher than his old one of $1.50, established when Aquila's immediate risks looked greater, the analyst has clearly cooled on the stock. He lowered Aquila's rating from neutral to reduce on Thursday because of his dim long-term outlook for the company.

"Put simply, Aquila's significant debt burden and obligation under its gas pre-pay contract will in our opinion be too great for its core domestic utility operations to support once it has disposed of all its other assets," Barone wrote. "As a result, Aquila's long-term prospects are limited and could include a restructuring at some point."

The stock tumbled 8.9% on the report, opening at $2.85 before clawing back above $3 later Thursday. The dip interrupted a breathless rally that had tripled Aquila's share price since liquidity fears peaked in March.

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Some optimistic investors immediately compared Aquila's downgrade to a bearish call last fall on Dynegy (DYN Quote). On Halloween, Prudential analyst Carol Coale issued a frightening report calling for Dynegy investors to "take what little value is left off the table," as she dropped coverage of the company in anticipation of a likely bankruptcy.

Coale's report carried some weight with investors who remembered her as one of few analysts who recommended selling Enron before the company went bankrupt. Her call also coincided with a decision by Chevron-Texaco (CVX Quote), Dynegy's largest shareholder, to write off almost all of its investment in the flailing energy company. The two bearish signals sent Dynegy plunging 15% to 68 cents in a single day.