March Madness: Table's Set for the Sweet 16

Measuring the Matchups

This year, Kentucky is conceded to be the best team, and would be projected to win the NCAA tournament more times than any other team, if a "simulated" tournament were played 100,000 times. But the teams have a human component and don't always perform to their capabilities. As in horse racing, if you put enough weight on a horse, he'll eventually lose to inferior horses. In basketball, the point spread is the equivalent of weight added to a horse.

On Thursday night, I think too much "weight" has been put on Kentucky. Wisconsin is a well-coached, stout defensive team. They play the same type of game as Mississippi State, a team that played two close games with Kentucky this season. The Wildcats are playing well, but the pressure of their winning streak and the lofty expectations that are being placed on them, will cause a regression to the mean. I'll take the generous 12 points with the Badgers.

I also like Marquette plus five points against Pittsburgh. Both of these teams are well-coached and play disciplined, deliberate basketball. Marquette found a freshman who can step it up under pressure, in 6'10" Steven Novak, who hit clutch three-pointers in overtime against Missouri. Marquette matches up well with Pittsburgh, and the Panthers only shoot 64% from the free-throw line.

When I bet on a team and lay the points, I want a team that can seal the deal in a close game by making free throws down the stretch. I see this game as one that will go down to the wire, and I'll take the Warriors plus the five points.

In the Arizona-Notre Dame game, I don't have an opinion on which team will cover the point spread. However, I like the game to go over the posted total of 157 1/2. Both of these teams like to push the ball up and down the court and have the depth to do so. Both teams also have sharpshooters who can bury the three.