College Hoops: Let the Games Begin

The Dayton-Tulsa game is a good example of how the NCAA has made mistakes seeding teams. Dayton is a No. 4 seed while Tulsa is a No. 13 seed. My power ratings have Dayton as an 11 and Tulsa as a 13, thus making the spread in this game 2 points, which means the oddsmakers' spread on this game is perfect. Dayton should have been a No. 7 seed and Tulsa should have been a No. 10 seed.

I think Tulsa will use the snub as additional motivation, and I may bet on the Golden Hurricane if the line creeps above 3 points. I've also placed wagers on Illinois (-9), Arizona State (+3), Gonzaga (pick) and Connecticut (-4) in other Thursday games.

On Friday, in the Louisville-Austin Peay game, my line differs from the oddsmaker's by 4 full points. This is a game where "public" money will come in on Louisville, because not many people have heard of Austin Peay. But the Governors have been on a spectacular run in the last half of the season, winning 15 of their last 16 games, culminating in a victory in the Ohio Valley Conference tournament final. Austin Peay does have height matchup problems with Louisville, but their guard play should be able to handle the pressing tactics of the Cardinals. I expect Austin Peay to slow things down and stay within the large point spread.

Both Alabama and Indiana are very poor road teams, but I have the Crimson Tide rated slightly better than the Hoosiers, and I believe they will be the likely winner in this matchup between two underachieving teams.

Although Britton Johnson is unlikely to play in Utah's game against Oregon on Friday, 4 1/2 points is too many to give to a team coached by Rick Majerus. Utah is a disciplined half-court team that will give Oregon all it can handle. I see the game as being nip and tuck all the way, with a final score in the 60s.

I don't believe any team with a power rating of 10 or higher is likely to make it to the Final Four. Look for No. 1 seeds Kentucky and Oklahoma to make the Final Four, but I'll go out on a limb and pick No. 4 seed Illinois to advance from the West and No. 3 Xavier to advance from the South. To see the entire field's power ratings click here.

I'll be back next Wednesday with a look at the Sweet 16.