AOL Would Face Cold World Alone

Analysts aren't so sure that will work, either. "It's a very dubious proposition," said Brumfield, who notes it's also "the only strategy they had." For one thing, the plan also amounts to a tacit concession that AOL failed as an Internet service provider in competing against cable and DSL broadband services. And these are the same parties from whom AOL must purchase wholesale access in order to (supposedly) resell their services at a higher, less attractive price to AOL members.

For the time being, AOL managers are publicly ignoring the concerns and portraying the departing Case as a genius whose vision is intact and who can still guide the online unit to a happy ending.

"Recognizing powerful new technology and consumer trends, [Case] architected the merger to put the right assets in place to best capitalize on those emerging opportunities," wrote AOL Time Warner CEO Dick Parsons in a note to employees. "Steve will play an important role in making sure AOL Time Warner capitalizes on its tremendous promise."

That kind of talk will probably hold up as long as the online assets stay in house. But could America Online survive on its own? "Not unless a miracle happens," Brumfield said.