Roger McNamee Says the Consumer Tech Will Remain King in 2003

5. What are the next big things in technology for 2003?

You're going to see some kind of product cycle in cell phones. I'm not sure how meaningful that will be. The industry is so big that it's hard to move the needle. There are so many cool new features available in cell phones; I expect at least some of them to reach critical mass in 2003.

As to who will benefit, it's very hard to tell. The semiconductor guys who support that industry will benefit. Within the vendor community, it's really hard to tell.

Wireless has two big issues. One is the carriers, who seem to have absolutely no understanding of how people use wireless products. The inability of carriers to integrate data with voice is baffling.

Is this just on the U.S. side?

It's aggravated on the U.S. side by the completely brain-damaged regulation by the FCC. The absence of meaningful technology standards in wireless voice in North America is holding the industry back.

But the regulators are not the sole culprit. The carriers seem to be completely clueless. I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me why I can't buy a cell phone that has an RJ-11 or an RJ-45 jack built into it so I can just plug my cell in [RJ-11 and RJ-45 stand for registered jack generally used for connecting to the Internet]. Let me just plug my computer into the thing! I'd definitely upgrade my phone to get that. But remember, these are the same people who for years persisted in the belief that cell phones would only be used by people in cars to speak to other people in cars, so they designed their entire network around that principle, which in retrospect turned out to be flawed.

I expect the upgrade cycle to be muted by limitations of wireless network. I expect to be surprised by what actually transpires (laughs).

For example, think about wireless data. I'm not one of those people who believe there's going to be a big carrier market for 802.11. To me, 802.11 feels like the Internet. It has to happen organically in a rather anarchical fashion. That's going to take a while.

I don't know if you use 802.11, but it's truly amazing. Apple has integrated wireless data really nicely for a couple of years. Now, there are Windows-based computers that do. I've got an Acer Tablet PC with integrated 802.11, which assumed the presence of a wireless network. That actually makes wireless data on Windows very easy to use.

The incentive to put one in your office or home is compelling. Merchants such as Starbucks(SBUX Quote - Cramer on SBUX - Stock Picks) have found a compelling reason to put them into their locations -- not because they can make money off access, but rather because they can make money selling coffee to people using it. I expect all kinds of fits and starts in that world, and that's OK.

The one thing I am absolutely certain of is that things are going to move a lot more slowly this next decade than they did the last decade, and again, to me that's OK.

On the wireless side, you're going to see more wireless data. But it's not going to be the year of wireless data, I don't think there's going to be one year. It'll be a decade of wireless data, and we're at the very beginning.

I think we'll make some progress this year and I hesitate to predict exactly where it will show up. I expect that using 802.11 in public places will be a lot easier by the end of the year. Will it be easy enough to be a mass market? I doubt it -- in fact, I'll be stunned if it is. But I think if you're really determined and willing to put up with a lot of B.S., it'll be in a lot more places at the end of the year than now.